Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Amarante vs Leixoes — Taça de Portugal 2018

Amarante
Amarante
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leixoes
Leixoesadvanced
10/19/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64Amarante Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amarante54%
×Draw21%
Leixoes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amarante
2.10
Leixoes
1.35

Amarante creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Amarante
3.40
Leixoes
2.30

allows per match

Amarante
0.40
Leixoes
0.80

finishing

Amarante+0.00on par
Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amarante ↓

Leixoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Amarante or draw
76%
Amarante or Leixoes
79%
Draw or Leixoes
46%

Winning margin

Amarante wins by 2+
33%
Leixoes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Amarante 1+ goals
88%
Amarante 2+ goals
62%
Amarante 3+ goals
35%
Leixoes 1+ goals
74%
Leixoes 2+ goals
39%
Leixoes 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Amarante (draw refunded)
69%
Leixoes (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amarante at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Leixoes away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amarante attack 3.40 + Leixoes defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Leixoes attack 2.30 + Amarante defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Amarante scores more
54%
level
21%
Leixoes scores more
24%

Amarante at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Amarante 1–1 Leixoes

Amarante and Leixoes drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Amarante Stadium in Amarante.