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Amal Tiznit vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Amal Tiznit
Amal Tiznit
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
3/8/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Amal Tiznit51%
×Draw29%
KAC Kenitra20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amal Tiznit
1.29
KAC Kenitra
0.70

Amal Tiznit creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Amal Tiznit
1.33
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Amal Tiznit
0.47
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Amal Tiznit+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amal Tiznit ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Amal Tiznit or draw
80%
Amal Tiznit or KAC Kenitra
71%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
49%

Winning margin

Amal Tiznit wins by 2+
24%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Amal Tiznit 1+ goals
72%
Amal Tiznit 2+ goals
37%
Amal Tiznit 3+ goals
14%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
50%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
16%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Amal Tiznit (draw refunded)
71%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amal Tiznit at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amal Tiznit attack 1.33 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Amal Tiznit defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Amal Tiznit scores more
51%
level
29%
KAC Kenitra scores more
20%

Amal Tiznit at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Amal Tiznit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amal Tiznit vs KAC Kenitra

Amal Tiznit beat KAC Kenitra 2-1 in Botola 2 on March 8, 2026.