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Amal BOU Saada vs Blida — League #187 2026

Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
FT
1 – 0
Blida
Blida
2/1/2019League #187League #187 · Round 20Stade Mokhtar Abdelatif (Bou Saâda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Amal BOU Saada55%
×Draw27%
Blida18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amal BOU Saada
1.42
Blida
0.69

Amal BOU Saada creates 106% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Amal BOU Saada
1.50
Blida
0.67

allows per match

Amal BOU Saada
0.70
Blida
1.33

finishing

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par
Blida+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amal BOU Saada ↓

Blida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Amal BOU Saada or draw
82%
Amal BOU Saada or Blida
73%
Draw or Blida
45%

Winning margin

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
27%
Blida wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
76%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
41%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
17%
Blida 1+ goals
50%
Blida 2+ goals
15%
Blida 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
75%
Blida (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amal BOU Saada at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Blida away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.50 + Blida defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Blida attack 0.67 + Amal BOU Saada defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Amal BOU Saada scores more
55%
level
27%
Blida scores more
18%

Amal BOU Saada at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Amal BOU Saada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amal BOU Saada vs Blida

Amal BOU Saada beat Blida 1-0 in League #187 on February 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mokhtar Abdelatif (Bou Saâda).