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Amagaju vs Vision — National Soccer League 2019

Amagaju
Amagaju
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vision
Vision
11/2/2024National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 8Stade Huye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Amagaju47%
×Draw28%
Vision25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amagaju
1.32
Vision
0.89

Amagaju creates 48% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

creates per match

Amagaju
0.85
Vision
0.67

allows per match

Amagaju
1.10
Vision
1.80

finishing

Amagaju+0.00on par
Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amagaju ↓

Vision →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Amagaju or draw
75%
Amagaju or Vision
72%
Draw or Vision
53%

Winning margin

Amagaju wins by 2+
22%
Vision wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Amagaju 1+ goals
73%
Amagaju 2+ goals
38%
Amagaju 3+ goals
15%
Vision 1+ goals
59%
Vision 2+ goals
22%
Vision 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Amagaju (draw refunded)
65%
Vision (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amagaju at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Vision away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amagaju attack 0.85 + Vision defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.32

Vision attack 0.67 + Amagaju defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Amagaju scores more
47%
level
28%
Vision scores more
25%

Amagaju at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Amagaju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amagaju vs Vision

Amagaju beat Vision 3-1 in National Soccer League on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Huye in Butare.