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Amagaju vs Rayon Sports — National Soccer League 2019

Amagaju
Amagaju
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rayon Sports
Rayon Sports
4/26/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Amagaju28%
×Draw30%
Rayon Sports42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amagaju
0.89
Rayon Sports
1.17

Rayon Sports creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 97 away

creates per match

Amagaju
0.85
Rayon Sports
1.24

allows per match

Amagaju
1.10
Rayon Sports
0.93

finishing

Amagaju+0.00on par
Rayon Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amagaju ↓

Rayon Sports →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Amagaju or draw
58%
Amagaju or Rayon Sports
70%
Draw or Rayon Sports
72%

Winning margin

Amagaju wins by 2+
9%
Rayon Sports wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Amagaju 1+ goals
59%
Amagaju 2+ goals
22%
Amagaju 3+ goals
6%
Rayon Sports 1+ goals
69%
Rayon Sports 2+ goals
33%
Rayon Sports 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Amagaju (draw refunded)
40%
Rayon Sports (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amagaju at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Rayon Sports away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.93 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amagaju attack 0.85 + Rayon Sports defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Rayon Sports attack 1.24 + Amagaju defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Amagaju scores more
28%
level
30%
Rayon Sports scores more
42%

Rayon Sports at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rayon Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Amagaju 0–2 Rayon Sports

Rayon Sports beat Amagaju 2-0 in National Soccer League on April 26, 2026.