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Amagaju vs Police — National Soccer League 2019

Amagaju
Amagaju
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Police
Police
5/7/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 26Kamena Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Amagaju31%
×Draw31%
Police37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amagaju
0.91
Police
1.02

Police creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 96 away

creates per match

Amagaju
0.85
Police
0.93

allows per match

Amagaju
1.10
Police
0.97

finishing

Amagaju+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amagaju ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Amagaju or draw
63%
Amagaju or Police
69%
Draw or Police
69%

Winning margin

Amagaju wins by 2+
11%
Police wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Amagaju 1+ goals
60%
Amagaju 2+ goals
23%
Amagaju 3+ goals
6%
Police 1+ goals
64%
Police 2+ goals
27%
Police 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amagaju (draw refunded)
46%
Police (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amagaju at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Police away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.97 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amagaju attack 0.85 + Police defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Police attack 0.93 + Amagaju defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Amagaju scores more
31%
level
31%
Police scores more
37%

Police at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Amagaju 0–2 Police

Police beat Amagaju 2-0 in National Soccer League on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Kamena Stadium in Butare.