Amagaju 1–1 Etincelles: Result & Stats

Amagaju

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Etincelles

11/22/2025

National Soccer League · Regular SeasonKamena Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Amagaju40%

×Draw29%

Etincelles31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmagajuExpected goals in this matchEtincelles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.02

Amagaju

1.20

Etincelles

1.02

Amagaju creates 18% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 96 away

0.85

creates per match

0.95

1.10

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Amagaju

0.85

Etincelles

0.95

allows per match

Amagaju

1.10

Etincelles

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amagaju+0.00on par

Etincelles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amagaju ↓

Etincelles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Amagaju or draw

69%

Amagaju or Etincelles

71%

Draw or Etincelles

60%

Winning margin

Amagaju wins by 2+

17%

Etincelles wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Amagaju 1+ goals

70%

Amagaju 2+ goals

34%

Amagaju 3+ goals

12%

Etincelles 1+ goals

64%

Etincelles 2+ goals

27%

Etincelles 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amagaju (draw refunded)

56%

Etincelles (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amagaju at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Etincelles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amagaju attack 0.85 + Etincelles defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.20

Etincelles attack 0.95 + Amagaju defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Amagaju scores more

40%

level

29%

Etincelles scores more

31%

Amagaju at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Amagaju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff