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Alzira vs Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Alzira
Alzira
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Roda
Roda
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 19Estadio Luis Suñer Picó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alzira43%
×Draw31%
Roda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alzira
1.14
Roda
0.84

Alzira creates 36% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 111 away

creates per match

Alzira
1.33
Roda
0.94

allows per match

Alzira
0.74
Roda
0.95

finishing

Alzira+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alzira ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alzira or draw
73%
Alzira or Roda
69%
Draw or Roda
57%

Winning margin

Alzira wins by 2+
18%
Roda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alzira 1+ goals
68%
Alzira 2+ goals
32%
Alzira 3+ goals
11%
Roda 1+ goals
57%
Roda 2+ goals
21%
Roda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alzira (draw refunded)
61%
Roda (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alzira at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 43 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alzira attack 1.33 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Roda attack 0.94 + Alzira defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alzira scores more
43%
level
31%
Roda scores more
27%

Alzira at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alzira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alzira 0 – 2 Roda

Roda beat Alzira 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Suñer Picó in Alzira.