Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alzira vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Alzira
Alzira
CANC
00:00
Jove Español
Jove Español
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Estadio Luis Suñer Picó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alzira47%
×Draw29%
Jove Español23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alzira
1.27
Jove Español
0.80

Alzira creates 59% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 110 away

creates per match

Alzira
1.33
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Alzira
0.74
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Alzira+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alzira ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alzira or draw
77%
Alzira or Jove Español
71%
Draw or Jove Español
53%

Winning margin

Alzira wins by 2+
22%
Jove Español wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alzira 1+ goals
72%
Alzira 2+ goals
36%
Alzira 3+ goals
14%
Jove Español 1+ goals
55%
Jove Español 2+ goals
19%
Jove Español 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alzira (draw refunded)
67%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alzira at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 43 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alzira attack 1.33 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Alzira defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alzira scores more
47%
level
29%
Jove Español scores more
23%

Alzira at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alzira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alzira vs Jove Español — Match Preview

Alzira face Jove Español on March 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alzira host Jove Español at Estadio Luis Suñer Picó.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.