Alzira 1–0 Hércules II: Result & Stats

Alzira

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hércules II

2/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 25Estadio Luis Suñer Picó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alzira48%

×Draw29%

Hércules II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlziraExpected goals in this matchHércules II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.78

Alzira

1.27

Hércules II

0.78

Alzira creates 63% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 78 away

1.33

creates per match

0.81

0.74

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Alzira

1.33

Hércules II

0.81

allows per match

Alzira

0.74

Hércules II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alzira+0.00on par

Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alzira ↓

Hércules II →

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alzira or draw

77%

Alzira or Hércules II

71%

Draw or Hércules II

52%

Winning margin

Alzira wins by 2+

22%

Hércules II wins by 2+

Team goals

Alzira 1+ goals

72%

Alzira 2+ goals

36%

Alzira 3+ goals

14%

Hércules II 1+ goals

54%

Hércules II 2+ goals

18%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alzira (draw refunded)

68%

Hércules II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alzira at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 43 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alzira attack 1.33 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Alzira defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alzira scores more

48%

level

29%

Hércules II scores more

23%

Alzira at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alzira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff