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Alzira vs Atzeneta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Alzira
Alzira
CANC
22:00
Atzeneta
Atzeneta
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 38Estadio Luis Suñer Picó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alzira39%
×Draw30%
Atzeneta30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alzira
1.10
Atzeneta
0.93

Alzira creates 18% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 98 away

creates per match

Alzira
1.33
Atzeneta
1.11

allows per match

Alzira
0.74
Atzeneta
0.87

finishing

Alzira+0.00on par
Atzeneta+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alzira ↓

Atzeneta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alzira or draw
70%
Alzira or Atzeneta
70%
Draw or Atzeneta
61%

Winning margin

Alzira wins by 2+
16%
Atzeneta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alzira 1+ goals
67%
Alzira 2+ goals
30%
Alzira 3+ goals
10%
Atzeneta 1+ goals
61%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
24%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alzira (draw refunded)
56%
Atzeneta (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alzira at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 43 matches

Atzeneta away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alzira attack 1.33 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atzeneta attack 1.11 + Alzira defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alzira scores more
39%
level
30%
Atzeneta scores more
30%

Alzira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alzira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alzira host Atzeneta

May 16, 2020: Alzira take on Atzeneta in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alzira host Atzeneta at Estadio Luis Suñer Picó.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.