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Always Ready vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
7/24/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 20Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Always Ready71%
×Draw17%
Vaca Díez12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.51
Vaca Díez
0.95

Always Ready creates 164% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 16 away

creates per match

Always Ready
2.58
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Always Ready
0.89
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
88%
Always Ready or Vaca Díez
83%
Draw or Vaca Díez
29%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
49%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
92%
Always Ready 2+ goals
71%
Always Ready 3+ goals
45%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
61%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
25%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
85%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.89 · 129 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.51

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Always Ready defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Always Ready scores more
71%
level
17%
Vaca Díez scores more
12%

Always Ready at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Always Ready 1–0 Vaca Díez

Always Ready beat Vaca Díez 1-0 in Primera División on July 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Alto in El Alto.