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Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
3/31/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Always Ready64%
×Draw19%
Independiente Petrolero17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.25
Independiente Petrolero
1.07

Always Ready creates 110% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 91 away

creates per match

Always Ready
2.58
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Always Ready
0.89
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
83%
Always Ready or Independiente Petrolero
81%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
36%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
41%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
89%
Always Ready 2+ goals
65%
Always Ready 3+ goals
39%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
66%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
29%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
79%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.89 · 129 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.25

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Always Ready defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Always Ready scores more
64%
level
19%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
17%

Always Ready at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero

Independiente Petrolero beat Always Ready 1-0 in Primera División on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Alto in El Alto.