Always Ready 4–0 Atlético Palmaflor: Result & Stats

Always Ready

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Atlético Palmaflor

12/25/2020

Primera División · Round 23Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Always Ready68%

×Draw18%

Atlético Palmaflor14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Always ReadyExpected goals in this matchAtlético Palmaflor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.93

Always Ready

2.31

Atlético Palmaflor

0.93

Always Ready creates 148% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 66 away

2.58

creates per match

0.97

0.89

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Always Ready

2.58

Atlético Palmaflor

0.97

allows per match

Always Ready

0.89

Atlético Palmaflor

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw

86%

Always Ready or Atlético Palmaflor

82%

Draw or Atlético Palmaflor

32%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+

45%

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals

90%

Always Ready 2+ goals

67%

Always Ready 3+ goals

40%

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

61%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

24%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)

83%

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.89 · 129 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.31

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Always Ready defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Always Ready scores more

68%

level

18%

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

14%

Always Ready at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff