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Älvsjö AIK W vs Lidköping W — Elitettan 2021

Älvsjö AIK W
Älvsjö AIK W
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Lidköping W
Lidköping W
10/30/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 25Älvsjö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Älvsjö AIK W36%
×Draw23%
Lidköping W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Älvsjö AIK W
1.61
Lidköping W
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 52 away

creates per match

Älvsjö AIK W
1.19
Lidköping W
1.67

allows per match

Älvsjö AIK W
1.77
Lidköping W
2.04

finishing

Älvsjö AIK W+0.00on par
Lidköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Älvsjö AIK W ↓

Lidköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Älvsjö AIK W or draw
59%
Älvsjö AIK W or Lidköping W
77%
Draw or Lidköping W
64%

Winning margin

Älvsjö AIK W wins by 2+
18%
Lidköping W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Älvsjö AIK W 1+ goals
80%
Älvsjö AIK W 2+ goals
48%
Älvsjö AIK W 3+ goals
22%
Lidköping W 1+ goals
82%
Lidköping W 2+ goals
51%
Lidköping W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Älvsjö AIK W (draw refunded)
47%
Lidköping W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Älvsjö AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Lidköping W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.04 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Älvsjö AIK W attack 1.19 + Lidköping W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lidköping W attack 1.67 + Älvsjö AIK W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Älvsjö AIK W scores more
36%
level
23%
Lidköping W scores more
41%

Lidköping W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lidköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Älvsjö AIK W 4–4 Lidköping W

Älvsjö AIK W and Lidköping W drew 4-4 in Elitettan on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Älvsjö IP in Stockholm.