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Alverca vs Vila Real — Taça de Portugal 2018

Alverca
Alverca
FT
3 – 1
Vila Real
Vila Real
9/24/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundComplexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alverca69%
×Draw18%
Vila Real12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
2.25
Vila Real
0.83

Alverca creates 171% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Alverca
3.50
Vila Real
1.00

allows per match

Alverca
0.67
Vila Real
1.00

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Vila Real+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Vila Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
88%
Alverca or Vila Real
82%
Draw or Vila Real
31%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
46%
Vila Real wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
89%
Alverca 2+ goals
65%
Alverca 3+ goals
39%
Vila Real 1+ goals
56%
Vila Real 2+ goals
20%
Vila Real 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
85%
Vila Real (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Vila Real away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 3.50 + Vila Real defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Vila Real attack 1.00 + Alverca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Alverca scores more
69%
level
18%
Vila Real scores more
12%

Alverca at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Alverca 3–1 Vila Real

Alverca beat Vila Real 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.