Alverca 2–2 Torreense: Result & Stats

Alverca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Torreense

Pedro Bicalho 25'

Ageu 14'

Né Lopes 62'

Manu Pozo 33'

3/14/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 26Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Alverca48%

×Draw26%

Torreense26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvercaExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Alverca

1.50

Torreense

1.02

Alverca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

1.83

creates per match

1.15

0.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Alverca

1.83

Torreense

1.15

allows per match

Alverca

0.89

Torreense

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alverca or draw

74%

Alverca or Torreense

74%

Draw or Torreense

52%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+

24%

Torreense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals

78%

Alverca 2+ goals

44%

Alverca 3+ goals

19%

Torreense 1+ goals

64%

Torreense 2+ goals

27%

Torreense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)

65%

Torreense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.83 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Torreense attack 1.15 + Alverca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alverca scores more

48%

level

26%

Torreense scores more

26%

Alverca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

14'

25'

33'

36'

55'

55'

56'

Ricardo Dias← Pedro Bicalho

58'

59'

62'

69'

69'

73'

79'

Léo Azevedo← Rúben Pinto

86'

A. Bukia← Brenner

86'

Mathys Jean-Marie← Manu Pozo

Statistics

AlvercaTorreense

Discipline

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Alverca vs Torreense

Alverca and Torreense drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on March 14, 2025.

Goals: Ageu (14'), Pedro Bicalho (25'), Manu Pozo (33'), Né Lopes (62').

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.

Alverca vs Torreense — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Alverca vs Torreense