Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alverca vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
1/28/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 17Campo Futebol Clube Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alverca48%
×Draw27%
Sporting CP B25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.38
Sporting CP B
0.92

Alverca creates 50% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
Sporting CP B
1.14

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
Sporting CP B
1.26

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
75%
Alverca or Sporting CP B
73%
Draw or Sporting CP B
52%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
23%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
75%
Alverca 2+ goals
40%
Alverca 3+ goals
16%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
60%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
23%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
65%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alverca scores more
48%
level
27%
Sporting CP B scores more
25%

Alverca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Alverca 2–0 Sporting CP B

Alverca beat Sporting CP B 2-0 in Liga 3 on January 28, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Futebol Clube Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.