Alverca 2–0 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

Alverca

FT

2 – 0

Sporting CP

Luan 56'

Alex 10'

10/17/2019

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundComplexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Alverca57%

×Draw20%

Sporting CP23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvercaExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.36

Alverca

2.22

Sporting CP

1.36

Alverca creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

3.50

creates per match

2.06

0.67

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Alverca

3.50

Sporting CP

2.06

allows per match

Alverca

0.67

Sporting CP

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Alverca or draw

77%

Alverca or Sporting CP

80%

Draw or Sporting CP

43%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+

35%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals

89%

Alverca 2+ goals

65%

Alverca 3+ goals

38%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

74%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

39%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)

71%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 3.50 + Sporting CP defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 2.22

Sporting CP attack 2.06 + Alverca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alverca scores more

57%

level

20%

Sporting CP scores more

23%

Alverca at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Alex

56'

Luan

66'

Neto

71'

Alex

75'

M. Acuna

90'

B. Fernandes

90'

R. Castanheira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff