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Alverca vs Camacha — Taça de Portugal 2018

Alverca
Alverca
FT
2 – 1
Camacha
Camacha
Flavio 87'
C. Gomes 45'
J. Barros 51'
10/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundComplexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alverca49%
×Draw20%
Camacha30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
2.25
Camacha
1.75

Alverca creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alverca
3.50
Camacha
2.83

allows per match

Alverca
0.67
Camacha
1.00

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Camacha+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Camacha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
70%
Alverca or Camacha
80%
Draw or Camacha
51%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
29%
Camacha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
89%
Alverca 2+ goals
65%
Alverca 3+ goals
39%
Camacha 1+ goals
83%
Camacha 2+ goals
52%
Camacha 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
62%
Camacha (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Camacha away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 3.50 + Camacha defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Camacha attack 2.83 + Alverca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alverca scores more
49%
level
20%
Camacha scores more
30%

Alverca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
C. Gomes
51'
J. Barros
87'
Flavio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Alverca 2–1 Camacha

Alverca beat Camacha 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 11, 2020.

Goals: C. Gomes (45'), J. Barros (51'), Flavio (87').

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.