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Alverca vs Atlético CP — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético CP
Atlético CP
9/17/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 6Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alverca47%
×Draw28%
Atlético CP25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.33
Atlético CP
0.90

Alverca creates 48% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 46 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
Atlético CP
1.09

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
Atlético CP
1.17

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Atlético CP+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Atlético CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
75%
Alverca or Atlético CP
72%
Draw or Atlético CP
53%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
22%
Atlético CP wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
74%
Alverca 2+ goals
38%
Alverca 3+ goals
15%
Atlético CP 1+ goals
59%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
23%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
65%
Atlético CP (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Atlético CP away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Atlético CP defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atlético CP attack 1.09 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alverca scores more
47%
level
28%
Atlético CP scores more
25%

Alverca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Alverca 1–1 Atlético CP

Alverca and Atlético CP drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.