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Alverca vs 1º Dezembro — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
1/13/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Alverca51%
×Draw27%
1º Dezembro21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.42
1º Dezembro
0.81

Alverca creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
1º Dezembro
0.91

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
1º Dezembro
1.34

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
1º Dezembro+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

1º Dezembro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
79%
Alverca or 1º Dezembro
73%
Draw or 1º Dezembro
49%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
25%
1º Dezembro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
76%
Alverca 2+ goals
41%
Alverca 3+ goals
17%
1º Dezembro 1+ goals
56%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
19%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
71%
1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

1º Dezembro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

1º Dezembro attack 0.91 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alverca scores more
51%
level
27%
1º Dezembro scores more
21%

Alverca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alverca vs 1º Dezembro

Alverca beat 1º Dezembro 2-0 in Liga 3 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.