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Alverca U19 vs Sporting CP U19 — League #1041 2026

Alverca U19
Alverca U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting CP U19
Sporting CP U19
D. Souza 90'
A. Ferreira 88'
A. Machado 51' (OG)
V. Palamarchuk 72'
M. Almeida 70'
8/24/2025League #1041League #1041 · Round 4Centro Formaçao FC Alverca Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alverca U1947%
×Draw23%
Sporting CP U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca U19
1.77
Sporting CP U19
1.38

Alverca U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Alverca U19
1.25
Sporting CP U19
1.14

allows per match

Alverca U19
1.63
Sporting CP U19
2.29

finishing

Alverca U19+0.00on par
Sporting CP U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca U19 ↓

Sporting CP U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alverca U19 or draw
70%
Alverca U19 or Sporting CP U19
77%
Draw or Sporting CP U19
53%

Winning margin

Alverca U19 wins by 2+
25%
Sporting CP U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alverca U19 1+ goals
83%
Alverca U19 2+ goals
53%
Alverca U19 3+ goals
26%
Sporting CP U19 1+ goals
75%
Sporting CP U19 2+ goals
40%
Sporting CP U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Alverca U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Sporting CP U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca U19 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Sporting CP U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca U19 attack 1.25 + Sporting CP U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sporting CP U19 attack 1.14 + Alverca U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alverca U19 scores more
47%
level
23%
Sporting CP U19 scores more
30%

Alverca U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alverca U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
A. MachadoOwn goal
70'
M. Almeida
72'
V. Palamarchuk
88'
A. Ferreira
90'
D. Souza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alverca U19 vs Sporting CP U19

Alverca U19 beat Sporting CP U19 3-2 in League #1041 on August 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Machado (51' o.g.), M. Almeida (70'), V. Palamarchuk (72'), A. Ferreira (88'), D. Souza (90').

The match was played at Centro Formaçao FC Alverca Campo 1 in Alverca do Ribatejo.