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Alvarado vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Alvarado
Alvarado
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
3/10/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Alvarado63%
×Draw24%
Union Sunchales14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alvarado
1.66
Union Sunchales
0.62

Alvarado creates 168% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 85 away

creates per match

Alvarado
1.67
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Alvarado
0.46
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw
86%
Alvarado or Union Sunchales
76%
Draw or Union Sunchales
37%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+
35%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals
81%
Alvarado 2+ goals
49%
Alvarado 3+ goals
23%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
46%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
13%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)
82%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.67 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Alvarado defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alvarado scores more
63%
level
24%
Union Sunchales scores more
14%

Alvarado at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alvarado vs Union Sunchales

Alvarado beat Union Sunchales 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires).