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Alvarado vs San Martin S.J. — Primera Nacional 2026

Alvarado
Alvarado
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
2/4/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 1Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Alvarado42%
×Draw32%
San Martin S.J.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alvarado
1.08
San Martin S.J.
0.79

Alvarado creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 100 away

creates per match

Alvarado
1.06
San Martin S.J.
0.76

allows per match

Alvarado
0.81
San Martin S.J.
1.11

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par
San Martin S.J.+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw
74%
Alvarado or San Martin S.J.
68%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
58%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+
17%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals
66%
Alvarado 2+ goals
29%
Alvarado 3+ goals
10%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
55%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
19%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)
61%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 103 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.11 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.06 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

San Martin S.J. attack 0.76 + Alvarado defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alvarado scores more
42%
level
32%
San Martin S.J. scores more
26%

Alvarado at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alvarado vs San Martin S.J.

Alvarado and San Martin S.J. drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.