Alvarado 2–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Alvarado

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

L. Algozino 74'

S. Giordana 57'

9/14/2019

Primera Nacional · Group A - 5Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Alvarado34%

×Draw30%

Platense35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvaradoExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.05

Alvarado

1.03

Platense

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 24 away

1.06

creates per match

1.29

0.81

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Alvarado

1.06

Platense

1.29

allows per match

Alvarado

0.81

Platense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw

65%

Alvarado or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

66%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+

13%

Platense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals

64%

Alvarado 2+ goals

28%

Alvarado 3+ goals

9%

Platense 1+ goals

65%

Platense 2+ goals

28%

Platense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)

49%

Platense (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 103 matches

Platense away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.06 + Platense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Platense attack 1.29 + Alvarado defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Alvarado scores more

34%

level

30%

Platense scores more

35%

Platense at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

M. Oliva

57'

S. Giordana

61'

J. Rossi← M. Tissera

67'

L. Algozino← G. Rivero

72'

I. Puleio← J. Susvielles

73'

C. Canuhé← M. González

74'

L. Algozino

81'

M. Caro← M. Oliva

81'

M. Vega← A. Ramírez

86'

G. Suso

Alvarado

Platense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Pumpido

67'▲L. Algozino←▼G. Rivero

73'▲C. Canuhé←▼M. González

81'▲M. Caro←▼M. Oliva

Alvarado substitutes

AlgozinoCanuhéCaroGentileQuilesVidalBilbao

Manager: F. Ruiz

61'▲J. Rossi←▼M. Tissera

72'▲I. Puleio←▼J. Susvielles

81'▲M. Vega←▼A. Ramírez

Platense substitutes

RossiPuleioVegaBochiIribarrenDesábatoInfante