Alvarado 3–1 Patronato: Result & Stats

Alvarado

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Patronato

3/30/2025

Primera Nacional · Round 8Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Alvarado47%

×Draw30%

Patronato23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvaradoExpected goals in this matchPatronato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.74

Alvarado

1.19

Patronato

0.74

Alvarado creates 61% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 65 away

1.06

creates per match

0.66

0.81

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Alvarado

1.06

Patronato

0.66

allows per match

Alvarado

0.81

Patronato

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par

Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Patronato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw

77%

Alvarado or Patronato

70%

Draw or Patronato

53%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+

21%

Patronato wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals

70%

Alvarado 2+ goals

33%

Alvarado 3+ goals

12%

Patronato 1+ goals

52%

Patronato 2+ goals

17%

Patronato 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)

67%

Patronato (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 103 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.06 + Patronato defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Patronato attack 0.66 + Alvarado defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alvarado scores more

47%

level

30%

Patronato scores more

23%

Alvarado at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff