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Alvarado vs Independiente Neuquén — Torneo Federal A 2018

Alvarado
Alvarado
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
9/9/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 1Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Alvarado69%
×Draw22%
Independiente Neuquén10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alvarado
1.75
Independiente Neuquén
0.48

Alvarado creates 265% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

creates per match

Alvarado
1.67
Independiente Neuquén
0.50

allows per match

Alvarado
0.46
Independiente Neuquén
1.83

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par
Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Independiente Neuquén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw
90%
Alvarado or Independiente Neuquén
78%
Draw or Independiente Neuquén
31%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+
41%
Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals
83%
Alvarado 2+ goals
52%
Alvarado 3+ goals
25%
Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
38%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
8%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)
88%
Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

Independiente Neuquén away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.67 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.50 + Alvarado defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Alvarado scores more
69%
level
22%
Independiente Neuquén scores more
10%

Alvarado at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alvarado 1 – 0 Independiente Neuquén

Alvarado beat Independiente Neuquén 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires).