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Alvarado vs Deportivo Roca — Copa Argentina 2018

Alvarado
Alvarado
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
1/29/2019Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alvarado56%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Roca15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alvarado
1.33
Deportivo Roca
0.54

Alvarado creates 146% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Alvarado
1.67
Deportivo Roca
0.75

allows per match

Alvarado
0.33
Deportivo Roca
1.00

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par
Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Deportivo Roca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw
85%
Alvarado or Deportivo Roca
71%
Draw or Deportivo Roca
44%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals
74%
Alvarado 2+ goals
38%
Alvarado 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
42%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
10%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)
79%
Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.67 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo Roca attack 0.75 + Alvarado defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alvarado scores more
56%
level
29%
Deportivo Roca scores more
15%

Alvarado at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Alvarado 2–1 Deportivo Roca

Alvarado beat Deportivo Roca 2-1 in Copa Argentina on January 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires).