Aluminium Arak 2–0 ZOB Ahan: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ZOB Ahan

3/7/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 22Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Aluminium Arak37%

×Draw33%

ZOB Ahan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchZOB Ahan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.85

Aluminium Arak

0.97

ZOB Ahan

0.85

Aluminium Arak creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

0.87

creates per match

0.91

0.79

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

0.87

ZOB Ahan

0.91

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.79

ZOB Ahan

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

ZOB Ahan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

70%

Aluminium Arak or ZOB Ahan

67%

Draw or ZOB Ahan

63%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

14%

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

62%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

25%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

7%

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals

57%

ZOB Ahan 2+ goals

21%

ZOB Ahan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

55%

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

37%

level

33%

ZOB Ahan scores more

30%

Aluminium Arak at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff