Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aluminium Arak vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
3 – 1
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
4/30/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aluminium Arak48%
×Draw27%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.38
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
0.91

Aluminium Arak creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.47
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.56
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
75%
Aluminium Arak or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
73%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
52%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
23%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
75%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
40%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
16%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
60%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
23%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
66%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.56 · 32 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.47 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
48%
level
27%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
25%

Aluminium Arak at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Aluminium Arak beat SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3-1 in Azadegan League on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak).