Aluminium Arak 0–1 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sepahan FC

5/28/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Aluminium Arak28%

×Draw31%

Sepahan FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.08

Aluminium Arak

0.84

Sepahan FC

1.08

Sepahan FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 115 away

0.87

creates per match

1.38

0.79

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

0.87

Sepahan FC

1.38

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.79

Sepahan FC

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

59%

Aluminium Arak or Sepahan FC

69%

Draw or Sepahan FC

72%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

9%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

57%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

21%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

5%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

66%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

29%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

41%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.82 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Sepahan FC attack 1.38 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

28%

level

31%

Sepahan FC scores more

41%

Sepahan FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff