Aluminium Arak 0–0 Paykan: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paykan

3/12/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Aluminium Arak39%

×Draw32%

Paykan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchPaykan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.85

Aluminium Arak

1.02

Paykan

0.85

Aluminium Arak creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 100 away

0.87

creates per match

0.91

0.79

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

0.87

Paykan

0.91

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.79

Paykan

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Paykan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

71%

Aluminium Arak or Paykan

68%

Draw or Paykan

61%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

15%

Paykan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

64%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

27%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

8%

Paykan 1+ goals

57%

Paykan 2+ goals

21%

Paykan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

57%

Paykan (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Paykan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Paykan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Paykan attack 0.91 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

39%

level

32%

Paykan scores more

29%

Aluminium Arak at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff