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Aluminium Arak vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
1 – 1
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
1/13/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aluminium Arak58%
×Draw26%
Oxin Alborz16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.52
Oxin Alborz
0.65

Aluminium Arak creates 134% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.47
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.56
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
84%
Aluminium Arak or Oxin Alborz
74%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
42%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
31%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
78%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
45%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
20%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
48%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
14%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
79%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.56 · 32 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.47 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
58%
level
26%
Oxin Alborz scores more
16%

Aluminium Arak at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Aluminium Arak 1–1 Oxin Alborz

Aluminium Arak and Oxin Alborz drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on January 13, 2020.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.