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Aluminium Arak vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
5/12/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Aluminium Arak46%
×Draw33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.06
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.62

Aluminium Arak creates 71% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 74 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
0.87
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.79
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
79%
Aluminium Arak or Naft Masjed Soleyman
67%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
54%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
19%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
65%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
29%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
9%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
46%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
13%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
68%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
46%
level
33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
21%

Aluminium Arak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Aluminium Arak 0–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Aluminium Arak and Naft Masjed Soleyman drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.