Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
2 – 2
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
P. Miri 72'
M. Alinejad 65'
M. Rezaei 75'
M. Majidi 25' (OG)
10/24/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Aluminium Arak35%
×Draw29%
Mes Rafsanjan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.12
Mes Rafsanjan
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.11
Mes Rafsanjan
1.60

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.67
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
64%
Aluminium Arak or Mes Rafsanjan
71%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
65%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
14%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
67%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
31%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
10%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
68%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
32%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
49%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.11 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.60 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
35%
level
29%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
36%

Mes Rafsanjan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. MajidiOwn goal
65'
M. Alinejad
72'
P. Miri
75'
M. Rezaei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan

Aluminium Arak and Mes Rafsanjan drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on October 24, 2019.

Goals: M. Majidi (25' o.g.), M. Alinejad (65'), P. Miri (72'), M. Rezaei (75').

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.