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Aluminium Arak vs Gol Gohar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
12/19/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 13Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Aluminium Arak35%
×Draw34%
Gol Gohar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
0.89
Gol Gohar
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 101 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
0.87
Gol Gohar
0.88

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.79
Gol Gohar
0.91

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
69%
Aluminium Arak or Gol Gohar
66%
Draw or Gol Gohar
65%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
12%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
59%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
22%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
6%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
56%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
20%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
53%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
35%
level
34%
Gol Gohar scores more
31%

Aluminium Arak at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs Gol Gohar

Aluminium Arak and Gol Gohar drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.