Aluminium Arak 1–0 Damash Gilanian: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Damash Gilanian

A. Abolfazl 15'

8/16/2020

Azadegan League · Round 34Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aluminium Arak56%

×Draw28%

Damash Gilanian16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchDamash Gilanian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.59

Aluminium Arak

1.36

Damash Gilanian

0.59

Aluminium Arak creates 131% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 61 away

1.11

creates per match

0.51

0.67

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

1.11

Damash Gilanian

0.51

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.67

Damash Gilanian

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Damash Gilanian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

84%

Aluminium Arak or Damash Gilanian

72%

Draw or Damash Gilanian

44%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

27%

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

74%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

39%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

16%

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

45%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

12%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

78%

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.61 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.11 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.36

Damash Gilanian attack 0.51 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

56%

level

28%

Damash Gilanian scores more

16%

Aluminium Arak at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Abolfazl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff