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Aluminij vs Neftchi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aluminij
Aluminij
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Neftchi
Neftchi
1/16/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Aluminij43%
×Draw25%
Neftchi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminij
1.55
Neftchi
1.33

Aluminij creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Aluminij
1.47
Neftchi
1.00

allows per match

Aluminij
1.67
Neftchi
1.63

finishing

Aluminij+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminij ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aluminij or draw
67%
Aluminij or Neftchi
75%
Draw or Neftchi
57%

Winning margin

Aluminij wins by 2+
21%
Neftchi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aluminij 1+ goals
79%
Aluminij 2+ goals
46%
Aluminij 3+ goals
20%
Neftchi 1+ goals
74%
Neftchi 2+ goals
38%
Neftchi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aluminij (draw refunded)
57%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminij at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminij attack 1.47 + Neftchi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Neftchi attack 1.00 + Aluminij defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aluminij scores more
43%
level
25%
Neftchi scores more
33%

Aluminij at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aluminij will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Aluminij
Neftchi
Jure Arsic
Manager: Jure Arsic
Vitaliy Levchenko
Manager: Vitaliy Levchenko

Friendlies Clubs: Aluminij 1–2 Neftchi

Neftchi beat Aluminij 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2026.