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Aluminij vs HNK Hajduk Split — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aluminij
Aluminij
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
1/9/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Aluminij25%
×Draw24%
HNK Hajduk Split50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminij
1.10
HNK Hajduk Split
1.65

HNK Hajduk Split creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Aluminij
1.47
HNK Hajduk Split
1.64

allows per match

Aluminij
1.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.73

finishing

Aluminij+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminij ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aluminij or draw
50%
Aluminij or HNK Hajduk Split
76%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split
75%

Winning margin

Aluminij wins by 2+
10%
HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Aluminij 1+ goals
67%
Aluminij 2+ goals
30%
Aluminij 3+ goals
10%
HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
81%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
49%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Aluminij (draw refunded)
34%
HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminij at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminij attack 1.47 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.64 + Aluminij defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aluminij scores more
25%
level
24%
HNK Hajduk Split scores more
50%

HNK Hajduk Split at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminij vs HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Hajduk Split beat Aluminij 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Umag.