Altyn Asyr 2–2 Istiqlol: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Altyn Asyr

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Istiqlol

3/14/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Balkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Altyn Asyr51%

×Draw23%

Istiqlol26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altyn AsyrExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.23

Altyn Asyr

1.82

Istiqlol

1.23

Altyn Asyr creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.47

creates per match

1.17

1.29

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Altyn Asyr

1.47

Istiqlol

1.17

allows per match

Altyn Asyr

1.29

Istiqlol

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw

74%

Altyn Asyr or Istiqlol

77%

Draw or Istiqlol

49%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

28%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

84%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

54%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

27%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

71%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

35%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

66%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 1.47 + Istiqlol defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Istiqlol attack 1.17 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more

51%

level

23%

Istiqlol scores more

26%

Altyn Asyr at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altyn Asyr vs Istiqlol

Altyn Asyr and Istiqlol drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat).

Altyn Asyr vs Istiqlol — AFC Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Altyn Asyr vs Istiqlol