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Altyn Asyr vs Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga 2020

Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aşgabat
Aşgabat
11/3/2023Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 20Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Altyn Asyr68%
×Draw19%
Aşgabat14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altyn Asyr
2.27
Aşgabat
0.92

Altyn Asyr creates 147% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 80 away

creates per match

Altyn Asyr
2.52
Aşgabat
0.91

allows per match

Altyn Asyr
0.93
Aşgabat
2.02

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par
Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Aşgabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw
86%
Altyn Asyr or Aşgabat
81%
Draw or Aşgabat
32%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
44%
Aşgabat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
90%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
66%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
39%
Aşgabat 1+ goals
60%
Aşgabat 2+ goals
23%
Aşgabat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
83%
Aşgabat (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Aşgabat away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 2.52 + Aşgabat defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.27

Aşgabat attack 0.91 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more
68%
level
19%
Aşgabat scores more
14%

Altyn Asyr at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Altyn Asyr 4–0 Aşgabat

Altyn Asyr beat Aşgabat 4-0 in Ýokary Liga on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin in Ashgabat.