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Altyn Asyr vs Ahal — Ýokary Liga 2020

Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
FT
3 – 3
Ahal
Ahal
11/9/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Altyn Asyr46%
×Draw23%
Ahal31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altyn Asyr
1.82
Ahal
1.46

Altyn Asyr creates 25% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

Altyn Asyr
2.52
Ahal
1.98

allows per match

Altyn Asyr
0.93
Ahal
1.12

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw
69%
Altyn Asyr or Ahal
77%
Draw or Ahal
54%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
25%
Ahal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
84%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
54%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
27%
Ahal 1+ goals
77%
Ahal 2+ goals
43%
Ahal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
60%
Ahal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 2.52 + Ahal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.82

Ahal attack 1.98 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more
46%
level
23%
Ahal scores more
31%

Altyn Asyr at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Altyn Asyr 3–3 Ahal

Altyn Asyr and Ahal drew 3-3 in Ýokary Liga on November 9, 2025.