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Altyn Asyr vs Ahal — AFC Cup 2018

Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ahal
Ahal
4/25/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Balkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Altyn Asyr35%
×Draw26%
Ahal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altyn Asyr
1.31
Ahal
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Altyn Asyr
1.47
Ahal
1.54

allows per match

Altyn Asyr
1.29
Ahal
1.15

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw
60%
Altyn Asyr or Ahal
74%
Draw or Ahal
65%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
15%
Ahal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
73%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
38%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
14%
Ahal 1+ goals
76%
Ahal 2+ goals
41%
Ahal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
47%
Ahal (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 1.47 + Ahal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ahal attack 1.54 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more
35%
level
26%
Ahal scores more
40%

Ahal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Altyn Asyr 1–0 Ahal

Altyn Asyr beat Ahal 1-0 in AFC Cup on April 25, 2018.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat).