Altos 1–4 Uniclinic Atletico Clube: Result & Stats

Altos

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

Tiaguinho Silva 57'

Olavio 86'

Rômulo 66', 32'

Dan 42'

5/12/2019

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Felipe Raulino (Altos, Piauí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Altos46%

×Draw25%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltosExpected goals in this matchUniclinic Atletico Clube

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.20

Altos

1.59

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.20

Altos creates 33% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 34 away

1.68

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Altos

1.68

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.29

allows per match

Altos

1.10

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altos+0.00on par

Uniclinic Atletico Clube+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Uniclinic Atletico Clube →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Altos or draw

71%

Altos or Uniclinic Atletico Clube

75%

Draw or Uniclinic Atletico Clube

54%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+

24%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals

80%

Altos 2+ goals

47%

Altos 3+ goals

21%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1+ goals

70%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2+ goals

34%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)

62%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

Uniclinic Atletico Clube away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.68 + Uniclinic Atletico Clube defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Uniclinic Atletico Clube attack 1.29 + Altos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altos scores more

46%

level

25%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube scores more

29%

Altos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Rômulo

42'

Dan

57'

Tiaguinho Silva

65'

Valclecio← Danielzinho

66'

Rômulo

69'

Marcinho← Humberto

79'

Olavio← Caio Acara

80'

Radsley← Klenisson Silva

82'

Rondallys← Dan

85'

Jorginho← Caique

86'

Olavio

Altos

Uniclinic

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Estevam Soares

69'▲Marcinho←▼Humberto

80'▲Radsley←▼Klenisson Silva

85'▲Jorginho←▼Caique

Altos substitutes

MarcinhoRadsleyJorginhoCamiloEdvanHenriqueLeoneNetoSilvaRaizeman

Manager: Luan Carlos

65'▲Valclecio←▼Danielzinho

79'▲Olavio←▼Caio Acara

82'▲Rondallys←▼Dan

Uniclinic Atletico Clube substitutes

ValclecioOlavioRondallysFelipeAdilsonOcaraTaironePikachu