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Altos vs Sport Recife — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Altos
Altos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
3/7/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 5Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Altos40%
×Draw30%
Sport Recife30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altos
1.16
Sport Recife
0.97

Altos creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Altos
1.11
Sport Recife
1.21

allows per match

Altos
0.74
Sport Recife
1.21

finishing

Altos+0.00on par
Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Sport Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Altos or draw
70%
Altos or Sport Recife
70%
Draw or Sport Recife
60%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+
17%
Sport Recife wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals
69%
Altos 2+ goals
32%
Altos 3+ goals
11%
Sport Recife 1+ goals
62%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
25%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)
57%
Sport Recife (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.11 + Sport Recife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sport Recife attack 1.21 + Altos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Altos scores more
40%
level
30%
Sport Recife scores more
30%

Altos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altos vs Sport Recife

Sport Recife beat Altos 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro in Teresina, Piauí.