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Altos vs Parnahyba — Serie D 2026

Altos
Altos
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Parnahyba
Parnahyba
Dieguinho 88'
Wesley Pratti 76'
Junior Mandacaru 48', 8'
D. Mota 81'
Gabriel Cardoso 74'
7/12/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Altos59%
×Draw22%
Parnahyba19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altos
1.89
Parnahyba
0.98

Altos creates 93% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 21 away

creates per match

Altos
1.68
Parnahyba
0.86

allows per match

Altos
1.10
Parnahyba
2.10

finishing

Altos+0.00on par
Parnahyba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Parnahyba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Altos or draw
81%
Altos or Parnahyba
78%
Draw or Parnahyba
41%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+
34%
Parnahyba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals
85%
Altos 2+ goals
56%
Altos 3+ goals
29%
Parnahyba 1+ goals
62%
Parnahyba 2+ goals
26%
Parnahyba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)
75%
Parnahyba (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

Parnahyba away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.68 + Parnahyba defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.89

Parnahyba attack 0.86 + Altos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Altos scores more
59%
level
22%
Parnahyba scores more
19%

Altos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Junior Mandacaru
48'
Junior Mandacaru
74'
Gabriel Cardoso
76'
Wesley Pratti
81'
D. Mota
88'
Dieguinho
Altos
Parnahyba
Jerson Testoni
Manager: Jerson Testoni
Betinho
Manager: Betinho

Match Recap: Altos vs Parnahyba

Altos beat Parnahyba 4-2 in Serie D on July 12, 2025.

Goals: Junior Mandacaru (8', 48'), Gabriel Cardoso (74'), Wesley Pratti (76'), D. Mota (81'), Dieguinho (88').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro in Altos.