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Altos vs ASA — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Altos
Altos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ASA
ASA
1/14/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Altos40%
×Draw30%
ASA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altos
1.13
ASA
0.94

Altos creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Altos
1.11
ASA
1.14

allows per match

Altos
0.74
ASA
1.14

finishing

Altos+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Altos or draw
70%
Altos or ASA
70%
Draw or ASA
60%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+
17%
ASA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals
68%
Altos 2+ goals
31%
Altos 3+ goals
11%
ASA 1+ goals
61%
ASA 2+ goals
24%
ASA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)
57%
ASA (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

ASA away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.11 + ASA defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

ASA attack 1.14 + Altos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Altos scores more
40%
level
30%
ASA scores more
30%

Altos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altos vs ASA

Altos beat ASA 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro in Teresina, Piauí.