Altos 1–1 America-RN: Result & Stats | Serie C

Altos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

America-RN

7/16/2023

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Altos49%

×Draw31%

America-RN20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltosExpected goals in this matchAmerica-RN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.64

Altos

1.17

America-RN

0.64

Altos creates 83% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

1.15

creates per match

0.20

1.07

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Altos

1.15

America-RN

0.20

allows per match

Altos

1.07

America-RN

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altos+0.00on par

America-RN+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

America-RN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Altos or draw

80%

Altos or America-RN

69%

Draw or America-RN

51%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+

21%

America-RN wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals

69%

Altos 2+ goals

33%

Altos 3+ goals

11%

America-RN 1+ goals

47%

America-RN 2+ goals

14%

America-RN 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)

71%

America-RN (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

America-RN away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.15 + America-RN defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

America-RN attack 0.20 + Altos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Altos scores more

49%

level

31%

America-RN scores more

20%

Altos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff