Altona Magic 4–0 Port Melbourne: Result & Stats

Altona Magic

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Port Melbourne

8/16/2025

Victoria NPL · Round 25Paisley Park Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Altona Magic38%

×Draw24%

Port Melbourne38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altona MagicExpected goals in this matchPort Melbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.49

Altona Magic

1.50

Port Melbourne

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 76 away

1.20

creates per match

1.50

1.48

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Altona Magic

1.20

Port Melbourne

1.50

allows per match

Altona Magic

1.48

Port Melbourne

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altona Magic+0.00on par

Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona Magic ↓

Port Melbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Altona Magic or draw

62%

Altona Magic or Port Melbourne

76%

Draw or Port Melbourne

62%

Winning margin

Altona Magic wins by 2+

18%

Port Melbourne wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Altona Magic 1+ goals

78%

Altona Magic 2+ goals

44%

Altona Magic 3+ goals

19%

Port Melbourne 1+ goals

77%

Port Melbourne 2+ goals

44%

Port Melbourne 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Altona Magic (draw refunded)

50%

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona Magic at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona Magic attack 1.20 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + Altona Magic defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Altona Magic scores more

38%

level

24%

Port Melbourne scores more

38%

Altona Magic at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Altona Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff